Capability / 07 / Forecast

Forecast

Scenarios, modeled and defended. Forward-looking analysis across configurable assumptions. Base case, sensitivity, and the reasoning behind every variable.

platform / 07 / forecastRUN #14 · 1 OF 24Portfolio projection · 12 months8 ASSUMPTIONS · 3 SCENARIOSJANAPRJULOCTDEC+20%+10%0-5%UPSIDE+18.4%BASE+9.2%DOWNSIDE-4.6%8 DRIVERS · CONFIGURED PER DEPLOYMENT · top weights 0.62 / 0.41

A forecast you can actually defend

01

Configurable scenario sets

Base case, downside, upside, and any custom case your team needs. Each scenario is a set of assumptions, not a black box. Edit one variable, rerun the fan.

02

Sensitivity surfaced

Which assumptions move the answer most? The platform ranks variables by impact and shows the elasticity. Your committee debates the inputs, not the output.

03

Defended assumptions

Every variable carries the source of its value: historical mean, partner judgment, regulatory benchmark. The forecast is reproducible because the inputs are sourced.

How Forecast fits into your forecasting work

Input

Scenarios, assumptions, and history

The forward-looking question, the scenario set, the lever values, and the historical data the platform should reference. Assumptions are sourced and labeled upfront.

Output

Scenario fan with sensitivity ranking

Base case, downside, upside, and any custom case. Sensitivity ranked by elasticity. Every variable's value carries its origin source — historical mean, partner judgment, regulatory benchmark.

Defensibility

Reproducible end to end

The forecast can be rebuilt step by step because every input is sourced. Reviewers override per-scenario without re-running the whole model.

Integration

Plugs into your existing data

Historical sources, market data, partner-specific overlays. Output routes into your dashboards, IC packets, or committee memos.

What the projection looks like

Three-scenario fan, sensitivity ranked by elasticity, every assumption sourced. Your committee debates the inputs, not the output.

Portfolio projection · 12 months
Scenario fan
UPSIDE
+18.4% to +24.1%
BASE
+9.2% to +12.7%
DOWNSIDE
−4.6% to +1.8%

Top drivers

Producer retentionelasticity 0.62
Carrier appetite shiftelasticity 0.41
New-business hit ratioelasticity 0.27
8 assumptions · all sourced

Questions teams ask

How are assumptions sourced?

Each variable carries the origin of its value: historical mean, partner judgment, regulatory benchmark, market consensus. Reviewers see the source on every assumption and can override per-scenario.

Can we add custom scenarios?

Yes. Base, downside, and upside are defaults; custom scenarios are first-class. Add a stress case, a regulatory case, a partner-driven case; the platform reruns the fan.

How is this different from a model in Excel?

The platform carries reasoning per variable, not just values. Sensitivity is computed continuously. Assumptions update across all scenarios when a source changes. The output is editable, not regenerated from scratch.

What about the assumptions we cannot defend?

Flagged inline. The platform is honest about which inputs are well-sourced and which are estimates. Your committee sees the difference and decides whether to escalate.

Book a demo

See Forecast in action

Walk through example scenario fans and how Forecast maps to your firm's forward-looking work. Every assumption sourced on the call.